Our 2026 predictions

Alright it's that time of year. Predictions on the record. I'll go first: the Fed cuts twice in 2026, not four times like the market is pricing.

Bold. I think they cut three times but the market throws a tantrum because it's pricing five. Net effect is the same — rates stay higher than people want.

My big macro call: the dollar weakens 8-10% against a basket. The twin deficit story is finally going to matter.

I'll take the other side. Dollar stays strong because Europe and China have worse problems. Relative strength wins.

Equities prediction: S&P finishes the year between 5800 and 6200. The AI trade narrows further. Only companies showing actual revenue from AI deployments get rewarded.

I'm more bullish. 6400. Earnings growth broadens out beyond the Mag 7. Mid-caps finally get a bid as money rotates. That's my whole thesis this year.

One more: oil averages $85 Brent for the year. Supply discipline holds, demand is okay but not great. The boring call.

I'll take the over. $90 average. Geopolitical risk premium isn't going away and OPEC has more discipline than people give them credit for.