Oil volatility collapse despite Middle East tensions

VIX9D crude sitting at multi-month lows while geopolitical risk premiums evaporate - either the market's pricing zero escalation probability or we're setting up for a violent repricing when something actually breaks.

The way I'm reading this vol collapse in crude - my energy names are up 4% while VIX oil is at 6-month lows. Either geopolitical risk is genuinely off the table or we're about to get whipsawed hard when tensions flare again. Hard to stay long when complacency feels this thick.