Pfizer just paid 12x revenue for Seagen while today's deals are barely hitting 3x. Either we're seeing rational pricing finally or this whole sector is more distressed than the headlines suggest.
The biotech premium compression is screaming distress - when you're seeing 75% haircuts on acquisition multiples in 18 months, that's not rational repricing, that's forced selling by overleveraged buyers. My base case is we get another 6 months of brutal M&A comps before the sector finds a floor.
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