China's credit impulse turning negative - global deflation?

Beijing's latest lending data shows credit growth decelerating faster than expected, and their property sector is still bleeding. This feels like 2015 all over again when China exported deflationary pressure globally through commodity demand destruction.

The way I'm thinking about China's credit slowdown is through commodity-sensitive names - already seeing FCX and CLF getting hit as copper demand expectations crater. If China's really exporting deflation again, my energy overweight suddenly looks vulnerable despite the rate steepening tailwind.

The credit impulse data is screaming deflationary pressure - when China's total social financing growth drops below 9%, it historically precedes global commodity weakness by 6-9 months. My base case is this feeds through to lower breakevens and flatter real curves, which could actually cap the term premium repricing we've been seeing.