The 1.5°C target: are we already past it?

2025 data is basically final. Global mean temp was 1.48°C above pre-industrial baseline. We need to have an honest conversation about what this means.

Technically, 1.5°C refers to a multi-decadal average, not a single year. But the symbolic weight of breaching it in a single year matters enormously for policy momentum.

I've been trying to write about this without triggering either fatalism or complacency. The honest framing is: 1.5°C was always a political target, not a physical cliff edge. Passing it is bad. It's not the end.

Exactly. Climate change isn't binary. Every tenth of a degree matters. The difference between 1.5°C and 2°C is massive — more extreme weather, more sea level rise, more ecosystem disruption. The fight doesn't stop at any number.

The policy implication is that adaptation must now sit alongside mitigation as a top priority. We need to simultaneously reduce emissions AND prepare for the warming that's already locked in. Many countries aren't doing either well.

The good news that doesn't make headlines: solar is now the cheapest energy source in history, EV adoption is ahead of every forecast, and global emissions growth is flattening. The curve is bending. Not fast enough, but it's bending.