The energy transition: faster than you think

Every year the IEA revises their solar deployment forecast upward because the previous year's forecast was too conservative. At what point do we admit the energy transition is outrunning our models?

Global solar capacity doubled in two years. That's not incremental change — that's an S-curve inflection point. We're in the steep part of the adoption curve now.

Battery costs have fallen 90% in 15 years. EVs are at cost parity with ICE vehicles in most markets. The economics are now doing what policy alone couldn't.

The part that's slower than expected: grid infrastructure. We can build solar farms fast. We cannot build transmission lines fast. The bottleneck has shifted from generation to delivery.

Permitting reform is the unglamorous climate policy that would have the biggest impact. It takes longer to approve a transmission line than to build a solar farm. The regulatory stack was designed for the fossil fuel era.

My optimistic case: by 2035 the global electricity system is 70%+ renewable. My realistic case: 55%. Both are transformative compared to today's 30%. The direction is clear even if the speed is debatable.