Is the seed funding winter finally over?

Q4 data is in. Seed deals are up 23% quarter over quarter. But before everyone celebrates, let's look at what's actually happening beneath the headline.

As a founder who raised in 2023, I can tell you the vibes have shifted. Investors are actually taking meetings again instead of sending the 'we're being cautious' template.

The data is nuanced. Deal count is up but median round size is down 15% from the 2021 peak. Investors are writing more checks for less money. That's discipline, not exuberance.

From an operations perspective, the companies raising now are fundamentally healthier. They're coming in with 18+ months of runway built on real revenue, not projections and vibes.

That's exactly what I'm seeing. The bar is higher and that's good. I'm writing checks again but every deal needs a credible path to profitability by Series B. That wasn't even a question in 2021.

The AI premium is real though. If you have 'AI' in your pitch, valuations are 30-40% higher than comparable non-AI companies. Is that justified?

For some, yes. For most, no. My research shows that 80% of startups labeling themselves 'AI companies' are really feature companies using API calls to foundation models. That's not defensible and the market will figure it out.