Criminal justice reform: what's working?

Ten years into the criminal justice reform movement. Let's do an honest assessment. What reforms are actually reducing incarceration and recidivism?

Cash bail reform has the clearest evidence. New Jersey eliminated cash bail in 2017. Jail population dropped 44%. Crime rates were unchanged. The data is overwhelming.

I'll push back slightly. The New Jersey system works because they invested in pretrial services and risk assessment tools. States that eliminated bail without those investments had worse outcomes. Implementation matters as much as the policy.

Drug courts are another bright spot. Participants are 10-14% less likely to reoffend than those processed through traditional courts. The cost savings are substantial — about $6,000 per participant.

The international comparison is instructive. Norway's recidivism rate is 20%. The US rate is 44%. Their system focuses on rehabilitation and reintegration. Ours focuses on punishment. The results speak for themselves.

The political challenge is that reform polls well in the abstract but loses support when attached to specific cases. One high-profile crime committed by someone on bail reform can undo years of policy progress.

That's the asymmetry of criminal justice politics. The cost of the status quo — thousands of people jailed pretrial because they can't afford $500 — is invisible. The cost of reform is viscerally visible. Good policy requires political courage.