Trump's tariff threats are already reshaping supply chains

Companies are quietly rerouting production ahead of January, but the real story is how Mexico and Vietnam are becoming the new winners while China hedges with third-country manufacturing. We might see more trade diversion than actual reshoring.

The Mexico manufacturing shift Tom mentions is exactly what happened with the first China tariffs - companies moved to Vietnam and Malaysia but kept Chinese components in the supply chain. The real policy question is whether reshoring actually happens or we just get more expensive products assembled in third countries with Chinese inputs.