NVDA earnings preview

NVDA reports Thursday. This is the single most important earnings print of the quarter. Not even close. The whole AI narrative lives or dies here.

The whisper number is absurd. Street is at $38B revenue but buyside expects $40B+. Anything below $39B and this stock trades down 10% on a beat.

I'm watching the data center segment breakdown. Specifically, what percentage is inference vs training revenue. That tells you whether AI spending is maturing or still in buildout mode.

Guidance matters more than the print. Jensen's commentary on Blackwell ramp and supply constraints will set the tone for every AI-adjacent stock through March.

My positioning: I trimmed into strength last week. Not because I'm bearish — because the risk/reward at 35x forward is asymmetric to the downside on any disappointment.

Smart. I have no single-stock position but I'm watching the read-through for TSMC, AMD, and the whole semicap equipment chain. If Jensen says supply is easing, that changes the capex cycle story.